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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 11:12:13 GMT -5
Howdy all!
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Post by LA_Randy on Sept 17, 2016 11:14:57 GMT -5
Ha, same time, deleted mine!
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 11:16:25 GMT -5
From Nate: Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her. It’s also become clearer that Clinton’s “bad weekend” — which included describing half of Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” on Friday, and a health scare (followed by news that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia) on Sunday — has affected the polls. Prior to the weekend, Clinton’s decline had appeared to be leveling off, with the race settling into a Clinton lead of 3 or 4 percentage points. But over the past seven days, Clinton’s win probability has declined from 70 percent to 60 percent in our polls-only forecast and by a similar amount, from 68 percent to 59 percent, in our polls-plus forecast. That’s not to imply the events of the weekend were necessarily catastrophic for Clinton: In the grand scheme of things, they might not matter all that much (although polling from YouGov suggests that Clinton’s health is in fact a concern to voters). But when you’re only ahead by 3 or 4 points, and when some sequence of events causes you to lose another 1 or 2 points, the Electoral College probabilities can shift pretty rapidly. A lot of light blue states on our map have turned pink, meaning that Trump is now a narrow favorite there instead of Clinton: nate-update-ss When a candidate has a rough stretch like this in the polls, you’ll sometimes see his or her supporters pass through the various stages of grief before accepting the results, beginning with a heavy dose of “unskewing” or cherry-picking of various polls. In this case, however, the shift in the race is apparent in a large number of high-quality surveys, and doesn’t depend much on the methodology one chooses. FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics and Huffington Post Pollster all show similar results in their national polling averages, for example, with Clinton leading by only 1 to 3 percentage points over Trump. This potentially ignores a more important question, however. Sure, Clinton might lead by only a percentage point or two right now — with a similarly perilous advantage in the Electoral College. But is that necessarily the best prediction for how things will turn out in November? Our various models differ on this question. Polls-only assumes that there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the outcome. But it also mostly assumes1 that the current condition of the race — Clinton ahead by around 2 points — is a statistically unbiased prediction of the Nov. 8 outcome. In other words, it assumes that Clinton is as likely to continue losing ground as opposed to regaining ground from this point forward. fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-should-panic-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week/
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 11:19:49 GMT -5
Donald Trump has benefitted from plenty of free and favorable media, particularly from CNN. But he may have finally pushed his luck too far. Trump had promised that his appearance at the new Trump hotel in Washington, D.C., on Friday would include a major statement about President Barack Obama’s birth status. The real estate mogul teased the appearance that morning, fueling speculation that he might finally admit he had been wrong to question the president’s U.S. citizenship. There was even talk that Trump might apologize. It didn’t happen. After speaking for a few minutes about his new hotel and letting a series of veterans praise his candidacy, Trump said, “Hillary Clinton and her campaign of 2008 started the birther controversy. I finished it. I finished it. You know what I mean. President Barack Obama was born in the United States. Period. Now we all want to get back to making America strong and great again.” The statement, which lasted about 30 seconds, contained two separate lies. Clinton didn’t start the birther controversy. Trump, who as recently as this week has refused to say he believed Obama was born in the U.S., didn’t end it. And CNN’s panelists made sure their viewers knew it. This was John Berman: “Hillary Clinton and her campaign never pushed it.” And this was his co-anchor, Kate Bolduan: “It’s false. … Donald Trump in 2011, he made this his signature issue. No one has gone as far as Donald Trump on the birther issue.” Jake Tapper ― who, to his credit, has been among the most aggressive about calling out Trump’s lies ― was blunt: “Those are two factually false statements. ... She and her campaign never, never started the birther issue. Second, Donald Trump did not end the birther issue.” Tapper also noted that the birther issue had a racial element, because it was an effort to delegitimize the nation’s first African-American president. John King, who remembered interviewing Trump on the day Obama released his birth certificate, was nearly speechless. “After four or five years of leading a fraudulent and reckless campaign against the legitimacy of the United States president, you got, what, about six or seven words from Donald Trump?” he said. “And none of those words,” Berman noted, “were ‘I’m sorry, I apologize.’ Or explaining why he ever questioned the birth status of the United States president.” On social media, other media figures reacted with a similar mix of incredulity and condemnation. This response may have partly reflected a realization that Trump had manipulated the media once again, by getting the networks to break away from normal coverage in order to show some pretty routine campaign speeches ― and promote his new hotel along the way. After promising a big reveal, Trump began his appearance by bragging about his new hotel. He then let a parade of veterans sing his political praises, turning the event into a free advertisement. “We got played,” CNN panelists admitted on air. Whatever the reason, the reaction to Trump’s birther statement recalled the harsh commentary following Trump’s attacks on federal Judge Gonzalo Curiel (the judge of Mexican heritage presiding over a lawsuit against Trump University) and the Khan family (the Muslim parents of a soldier killed in Iraq). Trump’s statements in those cases so clearly betrayed racial bias that they fueled lengthy political controversy, and ended up hurting his campaign. Friday’s statement on the birther controversy was so egregiously dishonest that it may have a similar effect. www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-birther-cnn_us_57dc2301e4b08cb14095847e?section=&
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 11:20:19 GMT -5
Ha, same time, deleted mine! Sorry bud; i didn't see one, so i started posting. We must have been doing it at the same time.
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 11:22:19 GMT -5
Trump: Never wrong, never sorry, never responsible What makes Donald Trump such a singular figure — in modern politics and, perhaps, ever — is his refusal to take ownership of the outrageous things he has said and done. It is the essence of his leadership style, the defiance that exasperates his foes and makes his supporters love him all the more. The one thing that is consistent about him is inconsistency. Not only does Trump refuse to apologize, he blames others for his own actions. His campaign staff may claim to speak for him, but he will leave even his aides twisting when it suits his purposes. Never had the GOP nominee done all of this in such a fun-house-mirror fashion as on Friday, when he disavowed a crackpot con that he had once promoted. He even went so far as to claim credit for rectifying the situation. “Hillary Clinton and her campaign of 2008 started the birther controversy. I finished it,” Trump said, falsely, in an appearance at his newly opened luxury hotel, which is just a few blocks from the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue NW. “President Barack Obama was born in the United States. Period.” Trump was referring to the false, racism-tainted theory that the nation’s first African American president was born outside the United States and, therefore, is not a legitimate occupant of the Oval Office. The impulses of the former “Celebrity Apprentice” host are those of a showman, not a traditional politician encumbered by a record and a governing philosophy. “There is something of the reality-TV culture in this. What’s going on right now is all that really matters,” conservative intellectual Yuval Levin said. That was the same instinct for expedience that led Trump earlier this year to revive long-discredited theories that Clinton White House official Vince Foster had been murdered, and to speculate that the father of his GOP primaries opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), had somehow been mixed up in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. “I fully think apologizing is a great thing, but you have to be wrong,” Trump told “Tonight Show” host Jimmy Fallon a year ago. “I will absolutely apologize sometime in the distant future if I’m ever wrong.” Instead, Trump just moves on, without a backward glance at the many pronouncements and positions that he has left by the roadside when he no longer finds them useful. His unsubstantiated theories also delve into serious policy questions. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-never-wrong-never-sorry-never-responsible/2016/09/16/88446d0e-7c1c-11e6-ac8e-cf8e0dd91dc7_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_trumpdebrief-920pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 11:24:38 GMT -5
Wow. Donald Trump says President Obama was born here. What a concession. No wonder he’s trending up in the polls. How did we get to this place, people? The big story of the day is that a candidate for president of the United States — a candidate who, according to The Times’s Upshot model, now has a one in four chance of being elected — admits he spent years telling the American people a stupendous lie. And even now, he won’t say he’s sorry. “President Barack Obama was born in the United States, period. Now we all want to get back to making America strong and great again,” Trump said abruptly and briefly on Friday. This was at his new Washington hotel, which he has been promoting with an avidity he has never devoted to, say, getting his immigration policy straight. Then Trump claimed that Hillary Clinton had been first to spread the rumor that Obama was not a native-born citizen. This is a lie. A lie that all the fact checkers in the world debunked when he started saying it long ago. People, I know some of you get very frustrated that news coverage of this election does not begin every day with: “In yet another total falsehood, Donald Trump …” This is your moment. The Day of the Double Falsehood is a very clear, very dramatic example of Trump’s tendency to, um, speak fictionally. He was just a real estate guy with a cheesy TV show until 2011, when he sort of ran for president, in a bid that focused almost entirely on his claims that Barack Obama had come from Kenya. “Three weeks ago I thought he was born in this country. Right now I have some real doubts. I have people that actually have been studying it, and they cannot believe what they’re finding,” he told an NBC interviewer. We never did learn what they found. But Trump has continued to get some of his most startling information from “people.” During the primary season in New Hampshire, a man at a Trump town hall gathering got up to claim Obama was a Muslim and “not even an American.” Strong candidates tell guys like this they’re wrong. Weak candidates ignore them. Trump responded, “You know, a lot of people are saying that. …” Sign Up for the Opinion Today Newsletter Every weekday, get thought-provoking commentary from Op-Ed columnists, the Times editorial board and contributing writers from around the world. Receive occasional updates and special offers for The New York Times's products and services. See Sample Privacy Policy None of the outrageous things he says are his fault. You got a complaint, take it to the people. Trump’s campaign wanted the birther issue to be made to go away. First, running mate Mike Pence said he believed Obama was a natural-born American citizen. “I confirm that and Donald Trump now confirms that,” First Pal Rudy Giuliani told another interviewer. Trump had changed his mind, Giuliani claimed, two or three years ago. That would have been around the time he was tweeting: “How amazing, the State Health Director who verified copies of Obama’s ‘birth certificate’ died in plane crash today. All others lived.” Moving the candidate himself was obviously a harder job. When The Washington Post asked him this week if he’d changed his mind, Trump said, “I just don’t want to answer it yet.” I’ve always said that women won’t vote for a candidate who yells because he’ll remind them of a bad boyfriend. This is the behavior of the nightmare date from hell. Who tells you exciting stories over drinks, all of which are clearly untrue, and then gets sullen and refuses to talk when you ask a couple of questions. Trump’s people were forced to come up with an unwinding scenario that did not require the candidate to admit he’d ever done anything wrong. So they sent out a press release announcing that Trump was the hero of the story — the man who stamped out the birther rumor, which was started by Hillary Clinton’s “vicious and conniving behavior.” Trump’s demands for the truth had forced Obama to release the long-form version of his Hawaii birth certificate while “Hillary Clinton was too weak to get an answer.” “Inarguably, Donald J. Trump is a closer. Having successfully obtained President Obama’s birth certificate when others could not, Mr. Trump believes that President Obama was born in the United States,” the campaign’s statement concluded. Even the most creative minds in the press office could not come up with any explanation for why it took Trump five years to acknowledge what the birth certificate proved. Asked about that, Pence said, disjointedly and desperately, that his running mate’s record on behalf of the African-American community “really speaks for itself.” What we have here is a candidate for president of the United States who makes stuff up all the time, but is either incapable of realizing that he’s telling a lie, or constitutionally unable to take blame for being untruthful. Yet, according to the polls, Hillary Clinton’s biggest problem is that the public thinks she’s dishonest. Amazing. www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/opinion/trump-makes-his-birther-lie-worse.html?ref=opinion&_r=1
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 11:27:05 GMT -5
Why a Donald Trump Victory Could Make Climate Catastrophe Inevitable Michael Klare on the forces moving us toward an uninhabitable planet. This story first appeared at TomDispatch.com. In a year of record-setting heat on a blistered globe, with fast-warming oceans, fast-melting ice caps, and fast-rising sea levels, ratification of the December 2015 Paris climate summit agreement—already endorsed by most nations—should be a complete no-brainer. That it isn't tells you a great deal about our world. Global geopolitics and the possible rightward lurch of many countries (including a potential deal-breaking election in the United States that could put a climate denier in the White House) spell bad news for the fate of the Earth. It's worth exploring how this might come to be. That geopolitics will play a decisive role in determining the success or failure of the Paris Agreement has become self-evident. The delegates to that 2015 climate summit were in general accord about the science of climate change and the need to cap global warming at 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (or 2.6 to 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit) before a planetary catastrophe ensues. They disagreed, however, about much else. Some key countries were in outright conflict with other states (Russia with Ukraine, for example) or deeply hostile to each other (as with India and Pakistan or the United States and Iran). In recognition of such tensions and schisms, the assembled countries crafted a final document that replaced legally binding commitments with the obligation of each signatory state to adopt its own unique plan, or "nationally determined contribution," for curbing climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, the fate of the planet rests on the questionable willingness of each of those countries to abide by that obligation, however sour or bellicose its relations with other signatories may be. As it happens, that part of the agreement has already been buffeted by geopolitical headwinds and is likely to face increasing turbulence in the years to come. That geopolitics will play a decisive role in determining the success or failure of the Paris Agreement has become self-evident in the short time since its promulgation. While some progress has been made toward its formal adoption—the agreement will enter into force only after no fewer than 55 countries, accounting for at least 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, have ratified it—it has also encountered unexpected political hurdles, signaling trouble to come. On the bright side, in a stunning diplomatic coup, President Barack Obama persuaded Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign the accord with him during a recent meeting of the G-20 group of leading economies in Hangzhou. Together, the two countries are responsible for a striking 40 percent of global emissions. "Despite our differences on other issues," Obama noted during the signing ceremony, "we hope our willingness to work together on this issue will inspire further ambition and further action around the world." www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/09/donald-trump-brexit-paris-accord-climate-change
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Post by LA_Randy on Sept 17, 2016 11:28:00 GMT -5
Ha, same time, deleted mine! Sorry bud; i didn't see one, so i started posting. We must have been doing it at the same time. Just don't let it happen again! 😀
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 11:28:09 GMT -5
Donald Trump’s Latest Birther Lie The midday bulletin arrived as another bizarre moment in the absurdist presidential campaign of Donald Trump: News Alert: Trump admits Obama was born in the United States. What? It read like some variation on “Trump Finds the Earth No Longer Flat.” But no, Mr. Trump, the ultimate mountebank, was at it again, altering but not abandoning the Big Lie campaign that first made him the darling of wing nuts and racists five years ago: his vicious insistence that President Obama was not born a legitimate American citizen. Did he apologize to Mr. Obama and the American people for the political poison he spread for so long? Of course not. Being Mr. Trump, he instead substituted a lie for a lie. He falsely accused Hillary Clinton of starting the birther myth, then further claimed he had nobly “finished” it off by badgering the White House for proof that Mr. Obama was born in Hawaii, not Africa. Sign Up for the Opinion Today Newsletter Every weekday, get thought-provoking commentary from Op-Ed columnists, the Times editorial board and contributing writers from around the world. Receive occasional updates and special offers for The New York Times's products and services. See Sample Privacy Policy The standard words for campaign mishaps — “flip-flop,” “retreat,” “walk-back” — simply do not apply to this candidate’s spirals through unreality. “Hillary Clinton and her campaign of 2008 started the birther controversy,” Mr. Trump maintained with a straight face, speaking in Washington to a crowd of friendly military veterans. “I finished it.” Then he conceded the truth, an act that must have felt very peculiar to him: “President Barack Obama was born in the United States, period.” Not quite period, much as Trump strategists now wish it were. Mr. Trump is probably hoping to reassure voters that he is edging into the mainstream, that he is not just the reckless, cynical bully of the Republican primaries. But the birther lies cling to him as tightly as his nativist hallucinators. The facts — because facts still matter — are that Mr. Trump continued to heap doubt on President Obama’s birth certificate even after it was released, slyly retweeting others’ contentions that it was a fake and a “computer generated forgery.” After he tried to pin the birther smear on her, Mrs. Clinton called it what it is: an “outrageous lie” intended to “delegitimize our first black president.” Mr. Trump delegitimized his own candidacy instead. www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/opinion/donald-trumps-latest-birther-lie.html?ref=opinion&_r=0
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 11:28:36 GMT -5
Sorry bud; i didn't see one, so i started posting. We must have been doing it at the same time. Just don't let it happen again! 😀 Sir yes SIR! I mean, no, Sir! ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png)
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jarais
Hive Attuned
Forever Larva Millennial
jetski diplomat
Posts: 1,251
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Post by jarais on Sept 17, 2016 11:30:37 GMT -5
Why did Trump and his supporters believe Hillary's birther lies for so many years??? ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png)
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Post by LA_Randy on Sept 17, 2016 11:37:58 GMT -5
From Nate: Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her. It’s also become clearer that Clinton’s “bad weekend” — which included describing half of Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” on Friday, and a health scare (followed by news that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia) on Sunday — has affected the polls. Prior to the weekend, Clinton’s decline had appeared to be leveling off, with the race settling into a Clinton lead of 3 or 4 percentage points. But over the past seven days, Clinton’s win probability has declined from 70 percent to 60 percent in our polls-only forecast and by a similar amount, from 68 percent to 59 percent, in our polls-plus forecast. That’s not to imply the events of the weekend were necessarily catastrophic for Clinton: In the grand scheme of things, they might not matter all that much (although polling from YouGov suggests that Clinton’s health is in fact a concern to voters). But when you’re only ahead by 3 or 4 points, and when some sequence of events causes you to lose another 1 or 2 points, the Electoral College probabilities can shift pretty rapidly. A lot of light blue states on our map have turned pink, meaning that Trump is now a narrow favorite there instead of Clinton: nate-update-ss When a candidate has a rough stretch like this in the polls, you’ll sometimes see his or her supporters pass through the various stages of grief before accepting the results, beginning with a heavy dose of “unskewing” or cherry-picking of various polls. In this case, however, the shift in the race is apparent in a large number of high-quality surveys, and doesn’t depend much on the methodology one chooses. FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics and Huffington Post Pollster all show similar results in their national polling averages, for example, with Clinton leading by only 1 to 3 percentage points over Trump. This potentially ignores a more important question, however. Sure, Clinton might lead by only a percentage point or two right now — with a similarly perilous advantage in the Electoral College. But is that necessarily the best prediction for how things will turn out in November? Our various models differ on this question. Polls-only assumes that there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the outcome. But it also mostly assumes1 that the current condition of the race — Clinton ahead by around 2 points — is a statistically unbiased prediction of the Nov. 8 outcome. In other words, it assumes that Clinton is as likely to continue losing ground as opposed to regaining ground from this point forward. fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-should-panic-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week/I find it amazing that Trump, when he is not making things up out of whole cloth is outright lying, has even a slight chance at winning the Presidency.
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Post by LA_Randy on Sept 17, 2016 11:43:13 GMT -5
Why did Trump and his supporters believe Hillary's birther lies for so many years??? ![;)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/wink.png) Have we now moved into the 'Thanks Hillary!' era?
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Post by foggyisback on Sept 17, 2016 13:12:58 GMT -5
From Nate: Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her. It’s also become clearer that Clinton’s “bad weekend” — which included describing half of Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” on Friday, and a health scare (followed by news that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia) on Sunday — has affected the polls. Prior to the weekend, Clinton’s decline had appeared to be leveling off, with the race settling into a Clinton lead of 3 or 4 percentage points. But over the past seven days, Clinton’s win probability has declined from 70 percent to 60 percent in our polls-only forecast and by a similar amount, from 68 percent to 59 percent, in our polls-plus forecast. That’s not to imply the events of the weekend were necessarily catastrophic for Clinton: In the grand scheme of things, they might not matter all that much (although polling from YouGov suggests that Clinton’s health is in fact a concern to voters). But when you’re only ahead by 3 or 4 points, and when some sequence of events causes you to lose another 1 or 2 points, the Electoral College probabilities can shift pretty rapidly. A lot of light blue states on our map have turned pink, meaning that Trump is now a narrow favorite there instead of Clinton: nate-update-ss When a candidate has a rough stretch like this in the polls, you’ll sometimes see his or her supporters pass through the various stages of grief before accepting the results, beginning with a heavy dose of “unskewing” or cherry-picking of various polls. In this case, however, the shift in the race is apparent in a large number of high-quality surveys, and doesn’t depend much on the methodology one chooses. FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics and Huffington Post Pollster all show similar results in their national polling averages, for example, with Clinton leading by only 1 to 3 percentage points over Trump. This potentially ignores a more important question, however. Sure, Clinton might lead by only a percentage point or two right now — with a similarly perilous advantage in the Electoral College. But is that necessarily the best prediction for how things will turn out in November? Our various models differ on this question. Polls-only assumes that there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the outcome. But it also mostly assumes1 that the current condition of the race — Clinton ahead by around 2 points — is a statistically unbiased prediction of the Nov. 8 outcome. In other words, it assumes that Clinton is as likely to continue losing ground as opposed to regaining ground from this point forward. fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-should-panic-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week/I find it amazing that Trump, when he is not making things up out of whole cloth is outright lying, has even a slight chance at winning the Presidency. The good news is that the polls are lagging indicators and don't reflect the blowback from the stoopid birther crack. Also, everyone will be focused on the first debate which should show who really is qualified to be President and who is extremely not.
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 13:19:26 GMT -5
From Nate: Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls has been declining for several weeks, and now we’re at the point where it’s not much of a lead at all. National polls show Clinton only 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump, on average. And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado — and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her. It’s also become clearer that Clinton’s “bad weekend” — which included describing half of Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables” on Friday, and a health scare (followed by news that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia) on Sunday — has affected the polls. Prior to the weekend, Clinton’s decline had appeared to be leveling off, with the race settling into a Clinton lead of 3 or 4 percentage points. But over the past seven days, Clinton’s win probability has declined from 70 percent to 60 percent in our polls-only forecast and by a similar amount, from 68 percent to 59 percent, in our polls-plus forecast. That’s not to imply the events of the weekend were necessarily catastrophic for Clinton: In the grand scheme of things, they might not matter all that much (although polling from YouGov suggests that Clinton’s health is in fact a concern to voters). But when you’re only ahead by 3 or 4 points, and when some sequence of events causes you to lose another 1 or 2 points, the Electoral College probabilities can shift pretty rapidly. A lot of light blue states on our map have turned pink, meaning that Trump is now a narrow favorite there instead of Clinton: nate-update-ss When a candidate has a rough stretch like this in the polls, you’ll sometimes see his or her supporters pass through the various stages of grief before accepting the results, beginning with a heavy dose of “unskewing” or cherry-picking of various polls. In this case, however, the shift in the race is apparent in a large number of high-quality surveys, and doesn’t depend much on the methodology one chooses. FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics and Huffington Post Pollster all show similar results in their national polling averages, for example, with Clinton leading by only 1 to 3 percentage points over Trump. This potentially ignores a more important question, however. Sure, Clinton might lead by only a percentage point or two right now — with a similarly perilous advantage in the Electoral College. But is that necessarily the best prediction for how things will turn out in November? Our various models differ on this question. Polls-only assumes that there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the outcome. But it also mostly assumes1 that the current condition of the race — Clinton ahead by around 2 points — is a statistically unbiased prediction of the Nov. 8 outcome. In other words, it assumes that Clinton is as likely to continue losing ground as opposed to regaining ground from this point forward. fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-should-panic-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week/I find it amazing that Trump, when he is not making things up out of whole cloth is outright lying, has even a slight chance at winning the Presidency. People care more about saying i won, than care about their own self-interests.
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 13:21:36 GMT -5
Jane Goodall Says Donald Trump Reminds Her Of How Chimpanzees Act To Get Attention By Stephen D Foster Jr on September 17, 2016 1:09 pm · The legendary anthropologist and expert on primates made some interesting remarks to The Atlantic prior to Trump officially being crowned as the Republican nominee at the GOP Convention in July. In Trump, Goodall sees a male chimpanzee trying to gain dominance by making as much noise as possible. In many ways the performances of Donald Trump remind me of male chimpanzees and their dominance rituals,” Goodall said. “In order to impress rivals, males seeking to rise in the dominance hierarchy perform spectacular displays: stamping, slapping the ground, dragging branches, throwing rocks. The more vigorous and imaginative the display, the faster the individual is likely to rise in the hierarchy, and the longer he is likely to maintain that position.” Clearly, that was exactly the case within the Republican Party as Trump threw his shit at every single one of his GOP rivals and continued winning primaries in state after state despite being the most outrageous candidate in the field. Now he thinks he can do the same thing against Hillary Clinton to win the presidency in November. But first, Trump will have to debate Hillary, assuming that he doesn’t pull out of the debates like the coward he is. Goodall plans to watch the debates with rapt attention because she thinks Trump will act like a chimpanzee named Mike. According to The Atlantic, Goodall said: In her book My Life With the Chimpanzees, Goodall told the story of “Mike,” a chimp who maintained his dominance by kicking a series of kerosene cans ahead of him as he moved down a road, creating confusion and noise that made his rivals flee and cower. She told me she would be thinking of Mike as she watched the upcoming debates. Indeed, Trump has made “creating confusion and noise” the centerpiece of his campaign, most recently by trying to blame Hillary Clinton for the rise of birtherism despite the fact that Hillary, nor her campaign, ever leveled such charges against President Obama. Trump has also made outrageous claims about Hillary’s health and said that her Secret Service detail should disarm themselves to see how long she lasts before being killed. Trump hopes that being the loudest and most obnoxious candidate will secure victory on Election Day. But Americans really need to ask themselves: Do we want a firestarter chimpanzee at the helm or do we want a civilized human being. Do we want to revert back into acting like apes, or do we want to continue to evolve? The choice is ours. www.addictinginfo.org/2016/09/17/jane-goodall-says-donald-trump-reminds-her-of-how-chimpanzees-act-to-get-attention/
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Post by foggyisback on Sept 17, 2016 13:35:04 GMT -5
No comeback for the Noles this week ; (
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 13:35:08 GMT -5
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 13:41:38 GMT -5
Donald Trump may think that he can just get away with spending years and years promoting the damaging, racist, and horrible theory that Barack Obama is a foreign-born (Muslim) terrorist who usurped the ‘throne,’ but DNC interim chair Donna Brazile spent the wee hours of Saturday morning reminding him that he’s dead wrong, one tweet at a time. On Friday, Trump finally admitted that President Obama was born in the United States, “period.” In fact, he spent an entire 20 seconds admitting that he has been wrong all these years before using the rest of his time to promote his new, overpriced hotel in Washington, D.C. — so you know he means it, right? But in admitting that he had been lying to America, those lies being the reason that he rose to political prominence in the first place, Trump needed a replacement lie — so he just did what he did best and blamed the whole thing on Hillary Clinton. While it is true that racist, desperate, die-hard Clinton supporters did start the “birther” rumor via an anonymous chain email, Trump picked up that particular ball and ran with it, leading a half-decade witch hunt against the “Kenyan-born” President. Clinton, it has been confirmed time and again, had nothing to do with birtherism past denouncing it. “President Obama produced a birth certificate, but Donald Trump is the only candidate in modern times to refuse to produce his tax returns,” Brazile tweeted, noting that African-Americans would need to sacrifice their “self-respect” to support Trump at this point. After that, she just unleashed on him: President Obama produced a birth certificate, but Donald Trump is the only candidate in modern times to refuse to produce his tax returns. — Donna Brazile (@donnabrazile) September 17, 2016 This week, Donald Trump attacked an African-American pastor from Flint, and the first Black to be President of the United States. #RaceCard — Donna Brazile (@donnabrazile) September 17, 2016 Trump has ask Black voters and others what do you have to lose by supporting him? Consider this: Our self-respect. #StrongerTogether — Donna Brazile (@donnabrazile) September 17, 2016 Trump does all this while still constantly attacking Hillary Clinton. That’s his version of multi-tasking—insulting several targets at once. — Donna Brazile (@donnabrazile) September 17, 2016 Trump made no apology for spending years pushing a story that he now says was a lie. He acts as though he is being gracious. #NeverForget — Donna Brazile (@donnabrazile) September 17, 2016 And of course, Trump replaced his birther lie with the lie that Hillary Clinton started birtherism and that his diligence put it to rest. — Donna Brazile (@donnabrazile) September 17, 2016 It will be much easier to spend the next few weeks working feverishly than it would be to spend the next four years suffering hellishly. — Donna Brazile (@donnabrazile) September 17, 2016 Donald Trump finally deigned to say—for the time being at least—that our first African-American president was in fact born in the USA. — Donna Brazile (@donnabrazile) September 17, 2016 Donald Trump is nothing but a thin-skinned bully who is nothing if he is not insulting someone — like war hero and POW John McCain, the family of a gold star veteran, or the President of the United States. I remember a time in recent history when conservatives would go insane if someone insulted veterans and their families or even the President. But those days are over. The Republican Party has sold out all of its values to back a racist xenophobe who calls our allies to the South rapists, our Muslim friends terrorists, and who threatens to attack other countries over so much as a rude gesture. This is what we’re up against, people. Be sure to get out and vote on November 8. Can you imagine the sort of people this guy would nominate to the Supreme Court? Oh. Nevermind. He’s already told us. winningdemocrats.com/donna-brazile-just-unleashed-a-brutal-late-night-tweetstorm-on-racist-birther-donald-trump-screenshots/
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 15:19:52 GMT -5
Donald Trump officially renounced “birtherism” today, admitting that President Obama was in fact born in the United States in an elaborate press conference that turned out to be just an excuse to get free airtime to show off his new hotel opening in Washington D.C. Trump was once so convinced that President Obama was originally born in Kenya that he made a video promising to donate $5 million to charity: “Now, I have a deal for the President. … If Barack Obama opens up and gives his college records and applications, and if he gives his passport applications and records, I will give to a charity of his choice — inner city children in Chicago, American Cancer Society, AIDS research, anything he wants, a check, immediately, for $5 million.” The rudeness and self-entitled privilege that Trump shows by being a private citizen with the gall to demand to see the personal papers of the President of the United States based on an obvious racist and delegitimizing conspiracy is just astounding, and we cannot allow him to just wave a magic wand and gaslight the entire nation. Washington Post reporter David Fahrenholt has been tracking Trump’s promised charitable donations (spoiler – there aren’t many) and sent a message to the Trump campaign asking, since he has now fulfilled the terms of his own “deal,” whether or not he will donate the money that he promised, or if he’s going to backtrack on his promises for umpteenth time. Sent this to @realdonaldtrump spox, to ask how he will fulfill promise to give $5M if assured Pres. Obama born in US pic.twitter.com/Uc751PeGrl — David Fahrenthold (@fahrenthold) September 16, 2016 occupydemocrats.com/2016/09/16/trump-just-got-called-5-million-birther-promise/
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 15:20:28 GMT -5
Former CBS Nightly News anchor Dan Rather has emerged as a national voice of reason during this year’s carnival of an election. The legendary journalist called out bunk mainstream reporters cowed into submission by Donald Trump’s incessant need to lie and whose every word is meant to deceive Americans into choosing his particular brand of narcissistic fascism: Enough is enough. It is a reality that every reporter must come to grips with. Trump is not a normal candidate. This is not a normal election. He will set a precedent that other demagogues will study and follow. Fear, combined with the lure of ratings, views, clicks and profits, have hypnotized too much of the press into inaction and false equivalency for far too long. I am optimistic the trance is being broken. Fear not the Internet trolls. Fear instead the judgement of history. Earlier this week, MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell pointed out the other night, American media simply isn’t equipped by its manual for calling candidates liars. In particular O’Donnell cited the New York Times, who won’t say a candidate lied, writing that Trump “stretched the truth” – which is a euphemistic way of saying that any reasonable person would question his grip on sanity after so many blatant falsehoods. He rightly accused the Gray Old Lady of lying to its readers by softening and legitimizing the barrage of Republican falsehoods. Rather saved his strongest criticism for the New York Times too: And yet when presented with this challenge, too much of the press has been cowed into inaction. This is a man who can be fact-checked into obscurity by any second grader with an Internet connection. And yet when he issues a mealy-mouth non-apology about President Obama’s obvious pedigree as an American, here we are with too many in the press not acknowledging his years of lies (check your Twitter feeds about how the New York Times initially covered this event). All of this of course sets the stage for Trump to lie again about somehow birtherism being Clinton’s fault. It’s not. Dan Rather is absolutely right to crush the Times for a headline that trumpeted the racist candidate Trump as doing well in polls, while incidentally reporting that he wouldn’t personally disavow birtherism yesterday. Even Colin Powell, one of the few remaining Republicans with any level of public respect, called out Trump for racial hate in his non-sensical demands for President Obama’s birth certificate long after one had been produced. Dan Rather pins the blame squarely onto the members of the media who treat this year’s Presidential election like a horse race, which it absolutely is not. For the first time in over 240 years, an American demagogue has arisen whose calculating manipulation has played the “objectivity” of the corporate news media, the equivocation and most sadly, the overwhelming self-interest triumphing over the quest for truth displayed by outlets like CNN who employs Trump’s former and possibly current campaign staffer Corey Lewandowski. It’s truly unprecedented for news to be displayed as a talk show, with all of the voices in the room treated equally, including the racists, anti-semites and religious extremists deployed across the television media landscape to “surrogate” the unsubtle Republican brand of xenophobia and victimhood that Donald Trump peddles to his audiences. Rather’s long perspective enabled him to write this passage about the dangerous signs of decay: For a long while, these thoughts have been coursing through my veins with concern and disbelief, and yet my abiding loyalty to the notion of fair, accurate and unbiased journalism held me in check from saying it out loud – much as I suspect it has muzzled the true feelings of many of my colleagues. But we must remember that Donald Trump knows this and cynically plays the press corps’ deep desire for fairness to his undeserved benefit. Trump’s relationship with the press is at the heart of so much that is troubling about his candidacy – the secrecy, the lack of transparency on something as normal as tax returns, the flaunting of the very rules by which we elect our leaders, the appeasement of hate groups. And his embrace of Roger Ailes and Breitbart, institutions who have polluted press freedoms, is a further dangerous sign of decay. The latest, barring the traveling press from covering an event and using them as ridicule in a speech, are but the most recent chapters in a novel full of outrageous acts. And this sentiment apparently extends to members of his own family as witnessed by his daughter Ivanka’s actions in an interview with Cosmo. Our country needs the wisdom and experience of Dan Rather more than ever today, as our country meets its most dangerous test from within. Hopefully, his message travels so far, that even corporate journalists read this story and understand how crucially important their jobs for the next 50+ days have become to our nation’s future. Because if they don’t, a Trump administration will probably start imprisoning journalists and leave Mr. Rather’s “second graders with an Internet connection” as the only ones left to fact check the rubble of America after Trump destroys our free society with his rotten lies and bigotry. occupydemocrats.com/2016/09/16/legendary-journalist-dan-rather-just-blasted-trump-for-making-demagogues-training-manual/
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Post by Outsider on Sept 17, 2016 15:21:08 GMT -5
Laura Bush’s comments are making waves across the political world after she said at the 2016 Women in World Summit in New York City that she wanted our next president to be someone who cares about women in Afghanistan – it being a core issue for her. It just so happens, that describes Hillary Clinton perfectly (she visited the region 4 times during her time as Secretary of State), and, frankly, it’s not something any of the Republican candidates can run on. Here’s her full quote: “I want our next president — whoever he or she might be — to be somebody who is interested in women in Afghanistan and who will continue U.S. policies … that we continue to do what we’re committed to do as a country.” “That’s who I want — or the kind of people that will do that and will pay attention to our history, and know what’s happened before and know specifically how we can continue to do the good things that we do around the world.” If you take her for her word, that can only mean one thing, she wants Hillary Clinton to be president. She may not have used those exact words, but that’s basically what she just said. And – many people in the audience literally took it that way. For more on this, visit HERE. If she doesn’t vote for Hillary, then she’d be supporting Donald Trump, and he’s already on the record for suggesting that the U.S. should target the families of terrorists in the region. She may not actually go on the record and say Hillary’s name, but she doesn’t have to. Her words just did the talking for her. news.groopspeak.com/laura-bush-is-supporting-hillary-condemns-the-gop-while-speaking-about-womens-issues-video/
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Post by mrobvious on Sept 17, 2016 16:26:13 GMT -5
Trump: Never wrong, never sorry, never responsible What makes Donald Trump such a singular figure — in modern politics and, perhaps, ever — is his refusal to take ownership of the outrageous things he has said and done. It is the essence of his leadership style, the defiance that exasperates his foes and makes his supporters love him all the more. The one thing that is consistent about him is inconsistency. Not only does Trump refuse to apologize, he blames others for his own actions. His campaign staff may claim to speak for him, but he will leave even his aides twisting when it suits his purposes. Never had the GOP nominee done all of this in such a fun-house-mirror fashion as on Friday, when he disavowed a crackpot con that he had once promoted. He even went so far as to claim credit for rectifying the situation. “Hillary Clinton and her campaign of 2008 started the birther controversy. I finished it,” Trump said, falsely, in an appearance at his newly opened luxury hotel, which is just a few blocks from the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue NW. “President Barack Obama was born in the United States. Period.” Trump was referring to the false, racism-tainted theory that the nation’s first African American president was born outside the United States and, therefore, is not a legitimate occupant of the Oval Office. The impulses of the former “Celebrity Apprentice” host are those of a showman, not a traditional politician encumbered by a record and a governing philosophy. “There is something of the reality-TV culture in this. What’s going on right now is all that really matters,” conservative intellectual Yuval Levin said. That was the same instinct for expedience that led Trump earlier this year to revive long-discredited theories that Clinton White House official Vince Foster had been murdered, and to speculate that the father of his GOP primaries opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), had somehow been mixed up in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. “I fully think apologizing is a great thing, but you have to be wrong,” Trump told “Tonight Show” host Jimmy Fallon a year ago. “I will absolutely apologize sometime in the distant future if I’m ever wrong.” Instead, Trump just moves on, without a backward glance at the many pronouncements and positions that he has left by the roadside when he no longer finds them useful. His unsubstantiated theories also delve into serious policy questions. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-never-wrong-never-sorry-never-responsible/2016/09/16/88446d0e-7c1c-11e6-ac8e-cf8e0dd91dc7_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_trumpdebrief-920pm%3Ahomepage%2FstoryI'd say 'wingers. They never take responsibility of their BS and their fringe and it's always someone elses fault.
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newhivemaster
Hive Listener
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Hive Master
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Post by newhivemaster on Sept 18, 2016 8:33:24 GMT -5
Good morning, Hive!!!
New pic up in the 1000 words thread.
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Post by phillippatUK on Sept 18, 2016 8:48:09 GMT -5
God hifternun! We're watching the tennis (as you can expect and imagine), but it looks like it's all going to be down to the last match, which I'm not very hopeful Evans/Edmund (whoever plays) will win (vs Del Potro probs.) - Nope, Evans vs Mayer.... Still, Leicester beat Burnley yesterday, with our new Striker scoring twice, so...
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Post by foggyisback on Sept 18, 2016 10:06:30 GMT -5
God hifternun! We're watching the tennis (as you can expect and imagine), but it looks like it's all going to be down to the last match, which I'm not very hopeful Evans/Edmund (whoever plays) will win (vs Del Potro probs.) - Nope, Evans vs Mayer.... Still, Leicester beat Burnley yesterday, with our new Striker scoring twice, so... Who's the new guy?
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Post by foggyisback on Sept 18, 2016 10:12:27 GMT -5
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Post by mrobvious on Sept 18, 2016 10:49:27 GMT -5
Of course Trump was quick to capitalize on the bomb(s).
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Post by mrobvious on Sept 18, 2016 10:52:35 GMT -5
What a disgusting organization. A perfect cover organization for murderers. It's clear that the guy ain't right; didn't even attempt to first at least call for help for the guy. He wanted to kill someone and used the state laws to do it.
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